Asia Logistics Wrap

Logistics of the Greencard

While visiting tdaxp recently, I learned that Dan's wife had received her Greencard this past March based on the I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application. Since then they have unfortunately been dealing with problems with the lawyer they chose to represent them while going through the application process with Homeland Security. (It seems Dan has removed his original posts commenting on the lawyer's performance).

Interestingly, my wife and I also went through the same process this year and she also successfully acquired the Greencard. We have something in common with Dan and his wife in that I am American and my wife is a Chinese national (from Shanghai). I am surprised I didn't realize all of Dan's posts on this subject at tdaxp--I would have definitely asked questions while my wife and I were patiently waiting the whole 8 months it took to complete the process.

Although my wife and I were confident we could put together the application ourselves, we nevertheless considered getting a lawyer as well. The reason being is that I have been working in Japan while my wife was studying her MBA in the US. Although I have maintained residence in the US, we weren't sure how this would appear to Homeland Security. In the end, however, we found a Chinese-American lawyer in New York was helpful in answering general questions about this specific scenario at no cost.

After submitting the application, we ended up having to resubmit a few documents later because I had applied using my Japan address rather than my US address. I did this primarily because my tax documents are filed from overseas using my Japan address, but once I resubmitted those documents with my US address, everything progressed smoothly through the final interview. We were asked the same questions as Dan and his wife received, except that my wife had never joined the Communist Party. So we never had to get into the details of immigration law like Dan describes. Our interviewer was very polite and friendly.

Although we plan to eventually move to the US, until we do my wife is required to return to the US at least every six months to maintain her Greencard. Since I visit the US to see family around twice per year anyway, this is no big deal in the short term. I would say our only disappointment in the entire application process was the lack of transparency in what is happening to an application at any given time. I would love to see something like FedEx package tracking for this process, but will likely never happen. It would simply show with greater clarity how inefficiently Homeland Security operates, and might force someone to actually do something about it! 

By the way, for those looking to embark on this process based on marriage or other family relationships, or already in-process, Visa Journey is a great site to reference.

What is the Dow Transportation Average telling us?

In the diagram below, I have charted the Dow Jones Transportation Average (blue) and the Nymex Crude Oil tracker (orange). This is stretched over the past year. As can be seen, from October of last year until March, any increase in crude oil reflected as a decrease in Transportation Average. If the primary underlying cost to transportation businesses is gasoline, then it can reasonably be expected that transportation profits, and indirectly stock prices, would decrease as the price of oil increases.

However, it seems through April and May, rising crude prices did not seem to have this correlation suggesting that rising prices sometimes do not have as great an impact as expected. From June, the expected patter returned, with minor gains in the Transportation average as crude prices started a decline in July. Although crude prices have now fallen significantly, the Transportation average has dropped off considerably. This suggests something bigger than crude prices hurting expectations of transportation industry performance--I believe this reflects the overwhelming cloud of the current financial crisis.

If demand drops considerably, no matter how low crude prices are, transportation company performance and growth will suffer. Likewise, in April and May, it could have been that the broader fundamentals in transportation were strong--efficiency, pricing strength, multi-modal utilization, etc--lowering the impact of high crude prices.

 

Of course, I am not a professional analyst, but I think following the Transportation Average trends relative to other index trends provides some additional insight as to what condition the economy is in, what it is telling us.

The past year has been rough for the Dow and Nikkei...

Basically, it was about a year ago when things started to look shakey for investment banking. My wife had just interned at Lehman Brothers in Tokyo over the summer, specifically in Structured Finance (i.e. Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), etc), and had hoped to be extended an offer. Looking back, we were really disappointed when she wasn't given an offer, but now we feel it was a blessing in disguise as Lehman has disintegrated and the MBS market has tanked. Below is a look at the Dow and Nikkei tracked over the past year:

   

The Nikkei was hammered in January and March and has never really recovered. October has historically never been kind to the stock market, and so far it appears this October will not disappoint. In the above chart, you can see how sensitive the Nikkei is to the Dow, although the Dow seems to track with less overall volatility.

Having just passed the end of the 3rd Quarter, it will be interesting to see how earnings reports look for many companies. If earnings and forecasts are depressed, I can only imagine there will be further erosion in stock prices.

Nikkei Mirroring the Dow (Updated)

So far today, it seems the Nikkei is mirroring the Dow, down about 5%. The yen has climbed to around 104 yen/dollar. This could be where it bottoms for today, as long as nothing domestically takes a big hit. If demand further weakens in the US, it could hit Japanese exporters and a stronger yen means less profits repatriated when translated from US dollars earned by overseas subsidiaries.

Update: The Nikkei has closed down 4.12%, with the yen still around 104 yen/dollar. Not quite as bad as it started, but a rough day for Japanese stocks, and Asia-Pacific stocks in general...

My English-Language Reading List of Books...

Below are books in English that I have read, am currently reading, or have been waiting to read over the past year:

Finished:

• Oracle Bones--Nice collage of Chinese society--went a little boring with the archaeology bent
• Leaving Microsoft to Change the World--Wonderful story behind the birth of a wonderful idea
• The Pursuit of Happyness--Inspiring
• Founding Brothers--Nicely focused and fascinating on America's core, first leaders
• Faith of My Fathers--Excellent family biography
• The Looming Tower--Must read if you really want to understand Al Qaeda and its origins

Currently Reading:

• The World is Flat--Interesting at the start, falling a bit flat
• The Age of Turbulence--Given recent market events, awesome book made even more relevant

Waiting to Read:

• War and Decision--Looks to be the defining book on planning for the War on Terror
• American Foreign Affairs (1959)--Book by Thunderbird's second president

Recently I have really picked up my reading and I have a growing list of books I hope to buy over the next couple months. Maybe its because I am flying more lately, all the transit time demands my reading attention...

Participation in Public Service

Frankly, every year we hear from citizens disgruntled with government and anxious for change. What rarely results from this is a devoted participation in public service.

Whether at the local, state, or federal level, we cannot expect government to change for the better as we envision it without our participation in government's institutions. Voting is the most fundamental way of participating. When we feel government has failed us, what excuse do we have to complain if we do not at that moment devote ourselves to an aspect of public service to bring about positive change?

We don't have any excuse.